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Archive for March, 2009

Funny business 26: The experience wall

Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

Three years at the same job and another of my colleague left. Pretty much everyone that I hanged out with at the beginning have disappeared.

I am not really connecting well with the new people that was brought in as replacement. I guess at one point, somebody felt the same way about me. Alas, that is not the deep realization that I want to write about. The experience wall that I believe I felt is that of complete confidence.

In former jobs, I hit it more or less after the first month on the job, but you can’t really compare that with an actual engineering job. Up until this point, there’s at least something that throws me off guard and made me doubt my abilities and skills. Today, or this month. that doubt no longer exists.

The feeling is similar to changing diapers. You know the baby pooped, it’s going to stink and messy to change the diapers and you just have to go through the motion. Yes, just going through the motion. Another bug, another complex issue solved. Where is the sense of pride? Where is MY adrenaline rush???

It doesn’t come without its pluses though. I find that I can pretty much perform my main duties as a low priority task in my brain. While dedicating most of my interests on programming and exploration of some technical stuff. Pissed off customers who calls to yell at somebody used to phase me a bit, making me fear about the security of my job. Now they are just talking to my shit wall. Which makes me wonder, why isn’t my sales guy answering these calls? Isn’t this his job?

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Funny business 25: Sick days

Sunday, March 22nd, 2009

I have started calling in sick on the day when I am actually sickest. Because people give me weird looks when I told them that I will be out sick in a few days. Perhaps people inherently don’t believe that an employee’s sick leave is actually for real medical reasons. Nor do they trust that an employee is actually smart enough and knows his body enough to forecast when will be the most viral moment of his week long battle with the cold.

Well, that’s the reason why I usually ask for a sick day off in advance from my boss. Because I know that I woke up with a sore throat today and when the pain did not subside after 3L of water with plentiful of vitamin C, there will be a great battle in my body in 4 days. I know because I’ve kept record of all my past cold/flu infections.

So, instead of warning in advance so that the business can prepare for it, I call in sick the morning of, which usually means chaos for people who were expecting me to be there. What an illogical thing I have to do to fit into the society.

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My personality profile

Wednesday, March 18th, 2009

You are best described as:

USUALLY TAKING CARE OF YOURSELF

Words that describe you:

Perceptive
Realistic
Demanding

Down-to-Earth
Hardnosed
Judgmental

Pragmatic
Skeptical

A General Description of How You Interact with Others

You are clearly a compassionate person; you believe that you should do unto others as you would have them do unto you, and you know that friends help their friends. But with you compassion is just one side of the coin; the other being a side that also expects others to hold up their end of the bargain. So you help others but it is with the expectation that others don’t take advantage of you or try to put one over on you. In short, you expect others to treat you as you treat them.

And for those people who do ask for help when they should have taken responsibility for themselves? This is the time when your more hard-edged side comes out. You are skeptical of people when they expect others to bail them out of trouble; if they got themselves into the bind, they should work their way out of the trouble. If it’s an emergency, or if it’s a friend who has been there for you when you have had hard times, you are there in a quick minute. But you are a discerning person and to you there is a big difference between an emergency and a self-inflicted wound. You just look at the facts: how the situation developed, how serious the situation, and how they can or cannot get through things on their own. The history you have with the person and with similar situations will inform you whether this is or is not a time for you to get involved.

You also have some limits when it comes to being with people. Sure some people need to be with others all the time and seem to get recharged by helping out most anyone else. But that’s not you. You know that you do best if you spend a fair amount of time on your own. Not that you are a loner, just that time spent by yourself is not wasted at all with you. You’ve come to understand that if you don’t take good care of yourself, eventually you’ll be not good to anyone, including yourself or others.

So your compassion is tempered by realism. Your sympathy for people in trouble is balanced by a critical evaluation of how they got themselves to the place they are. And you’ve learned to take good care of yourself, so you have something to give to your friends or others truly in need.

Negative Reactions Others May Have Toward You

Some people may see your practical style as lacking compassion. When your compassion is tempered, as it is at times by your discerning questions and careful consideration, it may seem to some like you have too much head and too little heart. And when you use time and energy to take care of yourself there will inevitably be some who see you as selfish and uncaring. But your approach is neither heady nor selfish. It is you. And unless your approach is causing you consistent problems in important relationships, there is really no reason to change. Your distinctive manner of having clear expectations for the relationships in which you will exert your energy is true to the core of you.

Positive Responses Others May Have Toward You

The truth is that most people respect someone who knows themselves and what they want. So even if some people don’t get exactly what they want from you often they will leave with a deeper respect for you. Your frank and honest approach may help someone to help themselves when they didn’t think this was possible, and they wind up better off: they’re out of trouble, they did it on their own, and they have you to thank. And you were, again, true to yourself.

On the Openness Dimension you are:

VERY CURIOUS

Words that describe you:

Imaginative
Creative
Intellectual

Adventurous
Unconventional
Artistic

Progressive
Daring
Inspired

A General Description of How You Approach New Information and Experiences

You are a very creative and imaginative person who is especially open to new ideas or new ways of thinking about old problems. You love to approach a conventional idea or a traditional way of doing things by walking around to the other side and explore it from a novel perspective. What’s new is what interests you. Like an artist looking for a new way to see, you focus your imagination on envisioning ideas, events or problems in completely original ways. You are intellectually progressive, which means you like to think and feel your way into unexplored landscapes where you let your sense of intellectual adventure romp freely.

Because you are so curious you can also be very teachable. You learn from personal and interpersonal experiences as well as from classrooms and textbooks. You crave new information, and toss and turn it in your vivid imagination. When you come across an idea from someone else or a thought in your own head that is particularly provocative or original, you light up. With wit and wisdom, Dr. Seuss describes you like this: “Think left and think right and think low and think high. Oh, the thinks you can think up if only you try!”

Negative Reactions Others May Have Toward Your Style of Thinking

Not everyone will be thrilled by your adventurous mind. Many people are content with the ideas that have served them and their culture well, and with visions they’ve grown accustomed to of what is and is not true. They’re not lit up at the prospect of moving out of their comfort zone. Others are afraid of new ways of thinking and creative ways of solving problems because they are somewhat fragile in the sense that they have trouble maintaining serenity in their current worlds and don’t want someone, like you, for instance, pushing out the edges of their intellectual and cultural cosmos. So don’t be surprised if your unconventional ideas sometimes get you criticized, or if some people walk away from the explorations of new territories of the mind that you find so exhilarating.

Positive Responses Others May Have Toward You

Despite some negative responses to your style of thinking, many people will find your progressive thoughts and vivid imagination quite attractive. Some will find your openness to new ways of thinking and your willingness to explore what others shy away from a very compelling quality. Other creative souls will find in you a companion on the journey into the unknown, and will welcome the camaraderie. Conversations with them will be lively and innovative and will ignite your imagination, and theirs. Even some who are less curious than you will be impressed by your courage to think and believe what is for them unimaginable, and by your willingness to go on adventures of the mind that they would find dangerous or daunting. For these people you might become a mentor into the wilder side of thinking and believing, and nudge them toward the creative and progressive ideas that you find so interesting.

On Emotional Stability you are:

RESPONSIVE

Words that describe you:

Open
Accessible
Too Sensitive

Reachable
Candid
Unguarded

A General Description of Your Reactivity

You are an emotional person. In some ways, we are all emotional; we feel joy, anger, sadness and fear; some of us more powerfully than others – and you more powerfully than most. Your emotions are closer to the surface, and your feelings more obvious to you than is the case with most people. You’ve got your life in a good place, your dominant mood is upbeat, and unless life has been particularly trying for you, you greatly enjoy the richness and intensity of life that being so open with your emotions brings you.

Sure there are times when your feelings come very close to the surface, and life becomes more complicated. At these times you may grow self-conscious, or feel a bit anxious. But all in all, you much prefer being open with your emotions, breathing in all that life offers, than shutting down any part of your emotional experience. Granted, there may be times when these emotions are hard but you realize that is part of life. And more often than not you feel enriched by your emotions, by your ability to be open to all that life brings you. You know that even when you have those times that get you down, there will be even more times when you see life in ways that others just can’t.

Negative Reactions Others May Have Toward You

Undoubtedly you have met some people who get uncomfortable being around you because your feelings are so close to the surface. They may keep a bit of distance, especially around any subject that might trigger an emotional topic they are uncomfortable with. Over time, they might even stay away from you more and more. You will find you have decisions to make; do you temper your style for their comfort or do you hope they will find ways to become more comfortable with emotional expressions? Given the richness that seems to stem from your emotional life the most meaningful response is probably very apparent to you.

Positive Responses Others May Have Toward You

You are a cherished companion for those friends who can handle emotions well. They will appreciate the candor with which you express even difficult feelings like anger and fear. Your openness will make intimate conversations even more intimate, and make the connections between you as friends deeper and stronger. Some people who have trouble expressing their feelings might find in you a good example of how to be more vulnerable and more open. Your willingness and ability to share your emotions could encourage them to share theirs, and invite them into ways of being friends that will help enrich their lives.

Your approach toward your obligations is:

FOCUSED

Words that describe you:

Deliberate
Careful
Regimented

Determined
Proactive
Obliged

Methodical
Perfectionist
Purposeful

A General Description of How You Interact with Others

Everybody knows they can count on you to do what you promise to do, be where you say you’ll be “on time” and finish what you start. If you say you’ll chair the committee, you’ll come with an agenda and a clear outline of the tasks to be accomplished, give everyone a chance to speak their minds, and then call for a vote on each issue, schedule the next meeting, hand out assignments and adjourn at the appointed time.

You like order and discipline, and use these to methodically accomplish whatever goals you have set for yourself and for others. And you have a strong sense of obligation if you accept responsibility, you are proactive; you take it on with a single-minded commitment, as if you’ve pledged your allegiance to the assigned task. People know that they can depend on you.

Your personal life is also one of order and discipline. You are likely to have a pretty firm schedule, and to stick to it. You make time for your friends, but not at the expense of your work duties. You can be talkative and funny in social situations, but seldom out of control.

In fact, you are pretty careful; you seldom, if ever, cross the line into impulsive behavior, and you are even careful to control how much of your inner world you disclose, even to your close friends. You keep yourself in check because you don’t want whatever mess might be inside you to leak out into conversation or make a mess of a relationship.

There are things to accomplish in life, both at work and in your social world, and you don’t want to let unnecessary clutter hamper your drive to get all of it done, and done well.

Negative Reactions Others May Have Toward You

It’s not hard to imagine one of your friends or colleagues saying, probably under their breath, “Just once I wish you’d be late to something, or wear the wrong clothes, or trip over your own feet. You seem so tightly put together that, just once, I’d like to see you explode, in laughter or anger or . . . anything.”

In part, they may be envious. You get so much done, and done so well, that they might feel they never measure up. Your discipline and sense of duty put them to shame. But it may also be that they sense that beneath that single-minded and orderly demeanour of yours is a complex and sometimes complicated person whom they’d like to know, not so they can make fun of you but so they can share their perplexed humanity with you and get you to share your complexity with them. They might wish you were less cautious, and therefore, more accessible to their friendship.

Positive Responses Others May Have Toward You

“If we want something done, we know whom to call.” Most of your friends and colleagues will learn to count on you, and they will appreciate you for this reliability.

If they get off track in a work situation, they’ll turn to you because they know you’ve got the goal clearly in view and you’re moving toward it with that characteristic discipline of yours. You’ll help get them back on track. If they need a personal friend to count on, they know you’ll show up when you say you’ll be there, dig in to whatever the common task is, whether it’s planning a party, organizing the garage, or working through a financial mess, and see it through to completion.

For anyone in trouble, you are the proverbial “friend in need”. Many of your friends will see you as an example that they seek to emulate. When they get disorderly or disorganized, they can watch how you live and work, and find in you a mentor in self-discipline.

They might well admire not just your ability to get to the goal or your single-minded drive, but also the underlying quality of your character; they will see your sense of duty to yourself, to life’s tasks, and to your friendships, and admire and imitate these qualities in you. Your focused life will be a guide to them when they get themselves so out of focus that they don’t know where they’re going.

When it comes to Extraversion you are:

RESERVED

Words that describe you:

Thoughtful
Modest
Reflective

Private
Introverted
Careful

Restrained
Meditative

A General Description of How You Interact with Others

You are generally a modest and private person. You are thoughtful and careful before making decisions and offering opinions. You most likely have a number of good friends and you greatly enjoy spending time with them. But even with your friends you tend not to be terribly outgoing; you open up, but slowly, and share yourself, but in a careful way. For you quality is much more important than quantity. When it comes to your social life you are more comfortable with deeper, well nurtured friendships than with having a social calendar that rivals that of a socialite.

Whether at work or in social situations, you neither need nor particularly like the spotlight. In fact, it is often the case that your friends and colleagues think you deserve more credit than you take and more attention than you get. But that isn’t really your style. Again, you don’t crave flash and attention, it’s quality and depth you treasure.

This isn’t to say that you don’t want to be around people or that you aren’t good in relationships and in social situations. In fact, you need the companionship of people, you just prefer quiet conversations with a friend or a small group to finding a new party to go to every week. Your social encounters balance out the side of you that likes your own company and having enough time to think and reflect. But you do find that life has a better rhythm for you when there is enough quiet time to deliberate on your own so that you are refreshed for your next encounter with friends and colleagues.

Negative Reactions Others May Have Toward You

You may occasionally run into problems with other people. Particularly those who may want more from you than you want to contribute, ones who may feel that by holding back you’re not holding up your end of the social bargain. Others may guess, correctly, that there is a wealth in you that they would like to tap into, but may assume that you are unwilling to share. Their positive expectations will be confirmed on those occasions when you do open up. But your social style is one you have developed carefully and positively.

Positive Responses Others May Have Toward You

While some people can be frustrated by your thoughtful manner, others will appreciate you, and it won’t take them long for them to realize that you are one of those who values depth and substance over flash and casualness. Even in private conversations there are times when you are more willing to listen than to open up. They will appreciate having more time to share their own thoughts and more of the spotlight than you care for. It is also likely that when you do choose to contribute they will listen because they’ve learned that you speak from a deep well of contemplation and reflection. It may take you some time, but if you’re thoughtful about it, you will find a few friends who understand your reserved nature and will enjoy certain social situations in which you are fairly comfortable and in which people are equally as comfortable with you.

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The confidence that might come

Wednesday, March 18th, 2009

I made a lot of big choices from September till now. I guess, I am writing to record the interim emotions. Some of my decisions have panned out well. Some have ended up in disaster. The most nerve destroying moment came when you did all your homework and the only thing left to do is to make that leap of faith in your own abilities.

I made that leap in everything I touched this time. It was despair, desperation, and depression that hit me afterwawrds. What I’ve learned so far is that the leap might be right, but the timing will never be right. The saying goes. You can pick a side or state a time, but you cannot do both.

At the moment of writing. Things are still in a transient state, but have a possibility to come out in my favor. It strengthens my belief in myself. It also made me more aggressive. My feelings are more out of whack and chaotic.

All this from taking my stand and going for it. In everything!

Posted in Writing | 2 Comments »

Zania Ania concept art 2

Saturday, March 14th, 2009

Finally got my wacom tablet installed and system restored with photoshop. It really speed up the whole process of drawing. This is a draft of the main character Ania that I will be fleshing out and coloring later. Just showing the slow progress as I learn how to draw in digital.

Of course, I superimpose them while drawing instead of panning it out like that. Another plus of having a digital medium to play with.

Tags: Drawing, Zania
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Photoshop skin manipulation

Friday, March 13th, 2009

Showcases dark skin toning without affecting hair and clothing too much. Also added more texture to the otherwise smooth skin to create the more “roughed and weathered” feeling.

I also slightly improved the shaodws and highlights to reduce the ambient glow.

Tags: Photoshop
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The artists who devoted their lives to art

Thursday, March 12th, 2009

I am always intrigued by the amount of artists living in Montreal. For some reason that I cannot fathom Montreal is their city. It is, therefore, not surprising that I have come to know a lot of artists. Most in name only, but few really stood out in their dedication to the life.

The nature of art usually veered them away from the business of earning money. Hence the often whispered term “Struggling artists”. So when I hear of someone who goes all in, I always get inspired by their courage. Something that I have always lacked from my upbringing. No, my life has always been about having something stable. Going for the less extreme lifestyle to support myself first.

You can only be young for so long before you lose your fire.

Natasha is a singer I met while swing dancing and have been following ever since. She’s a hardcore artist living that life with a great personality to boot. I really want to see her succeed because her dedication is infectious. But there’s nothing much I can do besides spreading the word of her existence. The picture links to her site, hopefully she will get some sample up to help you decide whether to donate to her or not.

In the mean time, check out her blog and follow her adventures.

Posted in Writing | 1 Comment »

Ending of a partnership

Friday, March 6th, 2009

It’s always frustrating to have to wind down something you have started, but it can’t be helped. Kirk got too busy with school and do not believe that he can continue. I was prepared for the eventuality though so at least I was mentally ready.

9to5ers began at first as a joint venture to explore a hobby that we both enjoyed: gourmet cuisine. But I guess as time goes by, it became too business like and the interest faded. I went into the partnership guarded, knowing that bad business will usually ruin a great friendship, but soon threw that worry away as I increased my efforts. I wanted it to be great and I also wanted to share an experience with Kirk. Maybe it got too business like.

For about 2 years, I mostly dedicated my efforts to the improvement of 9to5ers. Some great achievements include joining 9rules, reaching about 40 visitors/day. We ate, had discussions on food and generally enjoyed interacting with the readers. I spent most of my time learning about SEO and ad placements as well as improving the site and improve cost/traffic efficiency with an unfinished project of putting up 360 degree view of restaurants in flash.

By last month, we finally managed to achieve parity where the site pays for itself and I am saddened that it has to end when the site is just about to pick up. Most of our reviews ended up on the first page of google and the amount of spams even picked up as people started aiming their bots towards our site (Thank you akismet).

The upside is that now I am directing all my focus back to the personal blog while I go through a period of consolidation that will help me streamline my life. There’s nothing else I wanted to do more than to pick up and start something else. I have the entrepreneurial bug in me.

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The case against Mutual Funds in RRSP

Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009

Here is a recent correspondence I had with a friend of mine and I thought it’d be helpful for those of you out there in the same situation. It consists of all my arguments against investing in Mutual fund in your RRSP portfolio. For Americans, it is the same argument for your 401k. Here they are:

Good idea. Well, you still got about 30 years ahead of you to compound at 5%. That is what RRSP is for. That and getting rid of under-performing stock in exchange for cash tax return. You want to invest in mutual fund or stocks outside of a registered account so you can claim the loss as tax credit.

The problem with fund managers is that only 25% of them beat the market over 5 years. Whereas only 50% of them beat the market every year. You can basically calculate the odds of them beating the market by doing a calculation of (0.5)^x where x is the amount of year you are looking at. So a mutual fund will need to do about 7% return per year in order to pay you 5% per year. Now 7% is an average return if you ask me. It is what the market average return is. So for them to give you 7%, they will have to have a return of 9%. Most mutual funds has about 25% in bonds (@3%), that means that 75% of their stock portfolio will have to generate 11% return (75a + 0.75 = 9 solve for a ) to get to that target of overall 9% return. What are the chances that someone can beat the market by 4% per year? Historically there are only about 10 of them who did it in their 50 years of investing since 1927.

Another thing I have also noticed is that they usually present you with a chart of percentage rises and fall instead of the actual price of the fund. This is to hide the fact that they are actually under performing. With 1000 invested, 10% loss followed by a 10% rise in the same fund does not equal to the original 1000. Any loss in a fund is bad. Period. Another way to look at it. A 50% loss needs a 100% gain to get back to the original value. What are the chances of it gaining another 100% afterwards? Mutual fund will always underperform everything else. Our Canadian Pension fund, is presided over by a board of directors who get paid 30 million a year in order to lose 30B in value. This is the problem we let others manage our own money.

Total market equity value will gyrate near the range of 1998 (and 2003) until around 2020. This is still a theory I am working on. I have yet to sit down and measure the data, but it’s a basic comparison of the Gross National Product (How much profit we make) vs the total gain in the stock market. Let me tell you, the stock market has been gaining a lot more than the GNP. In the long run, GNP should be in line with the total market gain. I believe Jan 2009 we’ve fallen back to the norm. Now we are seeing fear driving it down. Which is why I got my Line of Credit.

That being said, depending on what your mutual fund holds, it might not be a good idea to get out now. Tech is the next boom and is surviving well. Housing is near bottom. Financial and traditional markets still has more pain to come.(Did I tell you that the peak of subprime is the year 2006? They have to refinance in 2009 and 2010) . Anyway, there’s another dip in 2009 so if you can, get GIC for the year instead of putting it in the fund. You can always go back when it picks up in 2010.

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Stress testing my dividend play

Sunday, March 1st, 2009

I am making an arbitrage play on Canadian dividends by taking out loans at 3% and buying dividend paying banks that pays 10%. The interests of both are taxed to my favour. The only downside is that banks are going to get decimated as we see the unraveling of Citigroup. Once the world’s largest bank.

Here are the two sides of the coin

Positives

Capital ratio of 10% i.e. leveraged only 10 times
Ranked #1 financial system in the world (after the collapse)
Stable deposit base
Overly heavily regulated by government
Low derivative involvement
Stable income that has not reported losses yet

Negatives

Resource based economy (~50% of GDP)
Reliant on US economy
Mark to market rule that can be worked around

The reasoning is very simple, if the too conservative Canadian banks fall, so will the banks everywhere in the world. Once that happens, money will not matter. Here’s the big but. Will they continue to be able to pay dividend? The answer lies in whether or not they can continue to make a proft. So far, all of them are able to do so except one Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce who reported a quarter of loss.

Last quarter was relatively stable, but the coming quarter will see just how stable they can really be when the record layoff in January causes a huge consumer default in credit cards. That’s the kind of things that’s not predictable.

So what am I to do? Imagine the worst case scenario of course and test to see if I can survive in each of them for the following 5 years.

A few test case

Scenario 1

High inflation
Rising interest rate
Dividend cut

This is the most likely to happen scenario. Low interest rate and the huge amount of money injected will lead to hyper inflation and will in turn push the interest rate up alongside it as governments try to push down inflation.

In this case, the inflation itself will drive the stock’s valuation up since inflation is the definition of an increase in equity price. The interest which I have to pay to maintain this loan will rise exponentially however. Which means that at one point, I will have to sell the stock in order to avoid paying the interest that are adjusted up along with inflation. The timing of this will be based purely on the interest payment as a percentage of my income.

Scenario 2

High inflation
Low interest rate
Dividend cut

This could happen as an interim state or it could become permanent based on how devastated the world economy is. Britain and the EU will probably remain in this state, I am not sure about Canada or the US at this moment. This is a favorable outcome in which I will keep my shares due to the nature of banks and the fact that they are located in Canada. Bank’s income will probably increase with inflation and the 50% resources based economy will only help Canadian dollar in inflationary times.

My only beef is if the government of Canada buys US dollars again in order to stem the tide like they did in 2008. Then again, my job will be in danger if the CDN is valued too high. So it has pros and cons.

Scenario 3

Deflation
Low interest rate
Dividend cut

This is bad. This means that we, as a human race, have imploded and greed cannot push anybody to see any opportunity anywhere. It is the current state that we are in and if it continues for longer it means that we’ve been living a lie. Logically it is impossible but for humor’s sake let’s pretend it continues on and becomes reality.

Things will continue to get cheaper, which makes people hoard money in hope to buy things at an even cheaper price. People will not be tempted to borrow because the interest paid now means that, compounded for a few years, you lose big. So you hoard money and you wait until things start to turn. The stock price itself will get decimated but my current interest cost will remain the same. My income will decrease as companies start reducing employee income. At one point, the % of income I use to pay interest will reach the breaking point.

Still, the low interest rate will prompt people to do something with it. I’d borrow it and buy bonds that pay more than the interest rate. (After the wave of bankruptcy of course). If not, just stay in cash. This brings up a good fact. The best investment in this type of economy is to invest in cash.

Scenario 4

Deflation
High interest rate
Dividend cut.

The great depression is sort of like this. So there’s no need to explain. In this case, I will simply sell my shares as there is no point in keeping it.

Conclusions

My decision of whether or not to get out and de-leverage will based primarily on whether or not the dividend will be cut and whether or not inflation will come back. The chances of a dividend cut now is high as we go into a year of bankruptcies. Business and consumer credit defaults will probably cripple a bank add to the sudden decrease in consumption of resources giving CDN economy a hit.

The conclusion therefore is to wait on the sideline and do not add to the dividend arbitrage play until the dividend and inflation direction is sure.

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