It took quite a few years to brew in my head, but I have finally finished drawing the blueprint for my wooden PC case. Huge emphasis was placed on a nail free assembly as well as a zen-like look that can also act as a desktop lamp for when I turn the lights off to enjoy my wine and candle. This blueprint showcases how I am going to cut each piece of wood and the possible look of the final assembly. The artistic part is too random to draw and will probably end up taking too long. So I will just leave that to when I finally finishes building.
The design time was prolonged due to the engineering spirit instilled in me. The design has to be able to scale up to different dimensions with only some slight changes and have to be able to accommodate different sizes of motherboard. That scaling capability is partially thought out in case I need to go through a second iteration. You can see this intention built into the redundant look of every piece. The only difference is in the length of each piece. If there were ever a second iteration, much effort will be put into making each piece exactly the same.
Until that happens, this one is custom made to my desire.
Conversations with strangers under a foreign sky, with sunshine brushing our faces through the shades of apple trees. Our morning was spent with Suzanne from Switzerland and Yum from Korea/Barcelona, both veterans of backpacking. We found a few tips on getting into Spain/Barcelona for cheap and learned about the pitfalls to watch out for when passing through customs . I can’t reiterate how much I prefer a hostel over a comfortable hotel. Not to mention that between Mark, me and finger pointing, we are able to communicate enough to have an interesting conversation with strangers from most of the countries around the globe.
Yesterday was just a taste to get our foot wet. Today we are going in for the kill and our destination is the “Ancienne Médina” of Marrakesh. We started off cheap and wanted to hike our way to the destination, but by noon we finally learned the important rule of the game that will shape the way we travel for the rest of the trip. One cannot withstand the unbearable heat of Morocco. I was already sun burnt and have emptied my water bottled by the time we called a cab. We paid the driver 40 Dh for the ride to our riad styled hotel Chellah. Very nice and clean with an open courtroom in the center. Most of the houses and hotels are styled in this way. I think paying 40 Dh is justified for how far it is and how complicated it is to find the the roads to our hostel this time. The driver also speaks French fluently while at the same time explained the history of all the buildings around.
At last, we arrived at the hotel intact. What a heavenly sight. Here’s a panoramic view in flickr. Click on all size and check out the original for the detailed view.
Here’s a footage of us walking from outside our hotel to a major street of the souq. I apologize for how shaky and bad the video is. I had to hide the camera because the locals gets very aggressive when cameras are pointed at them.
False guides
A few years ago, the government instigated a big crackdown on false guides so I can only imagine how bad it was back then. Even with the crack down and enforcement in place, we were still heavily assaulted everywhere we went. Marrakesh is a tourist city and scammer heaven, so don’t expect any peace of mind unless you stay inside.
Imagine this, you are lost in a strange country with intertwining side streets confusing the hell out of you. You take out your map and your trusty guide book “Lonely planet” to get oriented. Out of the blue a friendly looking local approached you and asked if you need help. His smile heart warming with a few missing teeth, you welcomed the help and asked if he can tell you where is “Jemaa-el-Fna” (Central square). He said he’d take you there, but having heard stories of the false guides you told him that you don’t have money and that you are not going to pay. Really, you just want him to point a general direction. Figuring that you can rely on your skills at asking for direction that you’ve honed in other backpacking trips. Well, you are in for some surprise buddy. This is not an European country.
Disclaimer
Perhaps Marrakesh shouldn’t be the first place that you visit, but chances are it is if you got swayed by any of the guides or vacation agency packages. And as such, you will have a misplaced sense of trust on Moroccan people if you did. I am warning you first because the real Morocco is not like what I am about to describe.
The false guide trade
Dealing with the locals of Marrakesh is tricky. The only rule that they abide by is this: 100 Dh for every service rendered. The guide promised that he’s just being helpful and said that we’d do the same for Moroccans visiting Montreal. But as we progressed, it became more and more obvious that he’s just taking us around to his friend’s place so they can gauge us. We got a full explanation of all the spices and natural makeup. 10 Dh for visiting the last synagog. The kicker is when we decided to ditch him, he had the audacity to ask for 100 Dh. We gave him 20 Dh and held on to our claims that we didn’t need hm and said so at the start.
It seems to me at the time that for Moroccans there is no such thing as business integrity. Several times we tried to work out a deal first before taking on any service but still get asked to pay different prices at the end. And when you accuse them of lying, they get really mad at you for saying that. It insults their honor (which is pretty ironic). In Morocco, theft’s punishment is having your hands cut off and I am not sure what lying is, but I am pretty sure it’s a harsh punishment too. Price changing is not equivalent to lying. So they hold you to your western guilt and honor while exercising no honorable conducts themselves. Before you bash me on this, please finish reading the rest of the journey. I understand that this happens only in the tourist towns in the tourist area, but I also need to warn anyone who decides to venture there.
For people who’s not on a budget and not afraid to splurge, you can usually find an official guide by asking the owner of your hotel. They come with official badge and are dressed in the traditional Moroccan robe but they charge more than the 100 Dh demanded by false guides you find on the street.
Sight seeing
Because of the false guide, we were pretty disoriented and had to spend the better part of the day finding our way back. This is when I discovered a unique character of Mark. He seems to have a need to know absolutely where he is. It surprises me because the whole idea of backpacking is getting lost. In any case, after much roaming around, we finally found our way and proceeded to finish the tours outlined on lonely planet.
One of the point of interest on the walking trail is Cafe d’épice. The place is shocking because of the number of white people stuffed in it. It act an oasis for weary western travelers to take a breather from the constant assaults of shopkeepers who wants to sell you stuff you don’t need. This is also where you can see the effect of lonely planet in full swing. Marked as a “Friendly place towards females” we saw a building full of white woman. All of a sudden, we don’t feel so unique anymore.
I spent some money buying some cloths to help me blend in, somehow , all that seems to do is making people mock me as “Chinese Alibaba”
When we returned to the hotel Chellah, we met a pair of British born sibling who lives in France: Jen and Rob. We were all relieved to be able to speak English once again and to feel the proximity of people who think like us that we decided to spend the rest of the day together and go out to watch some authentic belly dancing. It is from Jen and Rob that we begin to hear about the camel excursions in desert that some of the other backpackers are participating in.
We talked and enjoyed the atmosphere in a traditional Arabian settings until well into the night. Jen and Rob decided to head back to the hostel early because by midnight, the streets have turned hostile. Especially so towards woman and we had to surround Jen to protect her from all the cat calls and potential problems that might occur. At night, the streets are back in the hands of the locals. Single woman venture out at your own risk. Even guys needs to take more precaution.
Jemaa-el-Fna was quite a impressive in the morning, however, it is nothng compared to the night. It reminds me of a Taiwanese night market with the lights food and the people. It also showed the ugliest side of Marrakesh. Everythng at the night market requires money, a rule which we didn’t know. Because of this, we severely pissed off a few people. From listening to group of people making music to taking pictures. They will get hostile if you don’t pay up as if we are intruding on their right to enjoy themselves. They will even stop the music and stare at you using crowd psychology to force you to pay.
A great way to sum it up. The current politico-financial situation between the government and the banking industry is something like this:
High school educated people who are old and don’t own any current iphones coming down to Apple and telling Steve Job how cheap they should sell the iPhone for and who they need to sell it to. Leaving the design to Apple.
Just my opinion. Not to say that they are only high school educated. But their technological expertise in the field is equivalent to that. Same for Finances.
The whole time you are high you are silly and out of control. You do things without thinking. You can’t sit down and finish anything. You are not productive and you have this huge ADD. But it feels so good when you are in it.
For the past two weeks and for unknown reasons, I’ve been in this punch drunk high state. It usually fades away after two days so I wasn’t worried at first. It’s when it lasted for a week that I started getting worried. The whole time I was in the rush, I have this impending feeling of doom on when it eventually subsides. The higher you climb, the harder you fall so to speak.
I started to compare my skills against that of my peers agian. For a different reason this time. For people who knew me from long ago, you probably felt that I used to be very competitive person. To a point of absurdity now that I look back. I believe that it is the reason which lead to me asking myself: “What is wrong with my personality?”
The adjustment
I believe I went through a period of adjustment and have come out completely opposite of what I used to be. Not wanting to come out first in anything nor looking at anyone as a rival anymore. There are only people who I can work with to achieve goals together and those who don’t.
Mind you, I still get pissed off inside when someone takes something as a competition when I don’t want to do that. You know, those who taunts you in an attempt to get into a race so they can win and feel better. In that sense of view, I am still very much controlled by competition. Controlled in the sense that this type of person majorly pisses me off. I still need to work on not being affected by them.
Reason why I need to compare
So why am I comparing myself against others again? This time, I am glad that it is for a greater good. I need to do this so that I can accurately judge the facts that people spills out. Watching the news, I realize that there’s a lot of people out there who are just parrots, repeating others where in fact they have no idea what they are talking about. It is important for me to be able to accurately differentiate this so I can determine whether or not to actually consider what the person has to say or use it as a model to understand what the general population is thinking about.
What changed
To do so, I have to shed the passive aggressive mantle that is favored by my humble fellow asians and actually consider the realty that I might be better than most people at certain tasks. And that I can do things that they cannot just because of the way I am.
To be able to admit this as a fact and not do so blindly out of pride is a major step in my life.
What I especially love to do for now is shooting bullets at the sun and watch it bounce off.
The focus of this game is on gravity so emphasis is placed on making the physics emulator right. I am just now getting into the game play part after learning the ways of game programming. Mainly the aggregator class to prevent inheritance bloating, singletons for rendering engine and how to reduce the load on a computer.
As a challenge, see if you can maneuver the ship into orbit. Or better yet, shoot a bullet at just the right angle to launch it into orbit.
I always chuckle inside when someone comes to me 6 months later to tell me that they’ve finally sold everything. I know that I shouldn’t laugh, but these people seems to have missed my point… and the timing. Granted maybe I shouldn’t have thrown them off by stating that I am going to play through this turmoil for experience, giving them the impression that I am trying to rip them off of their profit. No, when I say something, I seriously mean it and it’s their fault for not believing that I state truths (with possibility of exaggerating by 1.5 times). I wanted to know how to invest in a depression like crash. Trial by fire, is the only effective way I know of learning something (and the most adrenaline filled one, feeding my addiction).
How I see things
Forecasting the market for me is a matter of seeing all the possible routes as parallel probabilities and honing my skills at timing when the effects actually reflects in the real world. Simple time lags for example is the 6 month delay of Canadian economy vs that of a US economy and the 2 minute delay in the reaction of TSX S&P vs S&P 500. Over time, the delay should shorten as information gets passed along faster, but you can always count on new groups of people joining the stock market that has slower access to information.
There is one characteristic of my personality that I believe is key to my being able to see the possible outcomes. The fact that I do not judge any event as good or evil tuned my mind to the point that they are today. Take for example the view on God. Since I do not believe that God is the absolute good and that my way is that of seeing both side, I force myself to see the point of view of Satan. This is especially turned on when reality is weighed heavily towards one side. (Some people accused me of being cruel because of this).
All this to show you how I arrive at my conclusions and that I am serious in what I am about to say.
The message
Inflation is coming.
There are $900 billion US dollars in circulation. US GDP is approximately $14.2 trillion. So far, all the agency combined have spent $12.8 trillion to combat this crisis where around $350 billion is what we call Quantitative Easing (printing money) with others that are close, but can’t be categorized as such. Recently, the US PPIP pledged $1 Trillion to buy toxic assets and the IMF pledged $1 Trillion to stimpack the world economy. Finally, interest rate is at or near 0%.
And this inflation is good for you…. Well, some of you.
From the reaction I get when I speak to people, I understand that nobody believes me. I agree. I don’t want to believe it either. BUT! I am at least sure that there won’t be deflation. Which really forces my hand in the strategy department.
At the moment, the economy is completely dictated by the US government and to preserve your capital, you have to be aware of what they are doing.
What does 0% interest mean?
When the interest rate is reduced to 0% or close to 0% it gives the FED and other entities certain power that it does not have before. When interest rate is a non zero value, the FED has to service and pay people who buys their debt issues. However, when it reaches zero, there is no consequence of borrowing anymore. You can literally make money out of thin air for as much as you want. The same thing can be said for other entities that have access to this interest rate. I am pretty sure that they will have some creative ways to take advantage of this and print their own money disguised as something else.
Which leads to…
Inflation
Definition of which means the decrease in the buying power of your cash or increase in the price of anything you buy. Which led ME to…
Fully invest in the stock market
Why am I not trying out how to hold cash over inflation like the way I am investing through depression? Because I already know the outcome of that and there is absolutely nothing I need to learn from it. So I am warning people and also leading by my own action.
Probabilities
There is a possibility that the US government will be able to manage it properly and reduce the amount of money in circulation as the economy recovers. There’s also the possibility that this won’t arrive for some time and that another severe 50% downturn in stock prices could happen. Still, taking all these cases into account, the benefit of being fully invested severely out weights holding cash or any GIC less than 3% when it does happen. Since I don’t know the time span till it happens, I opt to do it when I see it.
The administration
The US administration seems to want to make a stand at this level. If it falls more, it will be 30 years of pain. They are getting a second chance at managing the depression and they are dead set on doing it the other way around this time. You only have to read the fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s doctorate thesis to know what he’s going to do. The only thing that can stop this, is public outrage. Which, if happens just means that we, as human, are too stupid. However, this does introduce a random dice into the scheme of things. We are in an unknown territory that does not have any example in history. Hence my confusion on what to invest in. What happens when a government throws $13 trillion at the economy? Interesting question.
A quick crash first
For records sake, there is a very big chance that a crash will happen after April’s earnings season. Truth is, factory orders from my sources in the front line of manufacturing have not improved. They have been the same from January to March and consist mainly of emergency orders for one month to replenish depleted inventories. The current rally in the market is due to excessive money that people have saved up, but have nowhere to put. I am not the only person that noticed the fact that bank only gives 1~2% return. There is absolutely no incentive for people to keep it in secure assets and every incentive for people to put it in the stock market.
The crash will most likely be triggered by the bankruptcy of GM in 2 months. Yes people have time to prepare for it, however, just like the Lehman Brothers meltdown people will bet and write CDS against the bankruptcy and ended up having to pay too much again.
If you are fully invested, you don’t necessarily have to sell during the crash. The upcoming effect of all the trillions of dollars invested will be enough to heal anything. Wiping out $800 billion dollars (Total money supply) will not cause a dent in $12 trillion dollars (of future committed government spending).
If you have cash on the sideline. You still have time to invest when you start hearing that factory orders are back to normal. i.e. the bookings are done for 2 to 3 quarters at a time. I will let you know when it happens.
The effects of inflation
Fixed rate vehicles that does not adjust its rate to inflation will take a big hit. Pensioners and people retiring will see their buying power reduced. Debt will be easier to pay off as the national income increases (Probably not this year or next for individuals as it will take time to trickle down). We are screwing over the older generation’s cash hoard and piling debt onto the next generation. It is the perfect time to be a working and contributing adult.
Money changes your relationship with people. At least it changed mine.
As the de facto go to guy on anything financial amongst people who know me, I am starting to feel the weight of my own advices. I am someone who have no grudge taking money from strangers who made the wrong choice in a transaction, but I deeply care about whether or not people whom I give advice to succeed in making money based on what I say. Especially so if they follow my advice closely (Not so much if they don’t). That is why, I don’t usually tell people what to do in detail and instead insist on showing what I can see coming and what the choices are. I also focuses a lot on the strategies. Monetary strategies is just like the strategies in a war, you cannot always commit 100% of your forces.
How my advice work
I advice by building expectations of the problems to come so people don’t sell in panic. I suggest good times to get in based on my own analysis and people’s situation. Which, I believe, is the fairest way I can go about doing this without destroying the friendship.
Why am I being so careful? Because someone did hold me responsible for their losses and the relationship has since soured. The psychology of human is this: You are not going to blame yourself, so you are just going to blame the next person with the most control.
How it happened
It was one of the people I communicated with when I first started out. We were more like investment buddies sharing our findings together, but I am the one who is in control of the direction of our investments. The problem then is I had no idea how much money he has and what kind of tolerance he have on losses. Starting in 2007, I have maneuvered my buys fully expecting a recession and at worst case a deep depression. Thus, I didn’t commit most of my resources until October and am now fully committed except for cash reserves for living (The reason of which is a mystery to some and is something that I will go over in another post). The strategy were not communicated, but the stock buys were circulating freely. Partly because we have reserves on revealing our financial worth. So he sold once his tolerance is reached while I don’t mind a swing of 50% in my net worth.
Jackpot winner
Take the example of the guy who won the 649 Jackpot. The expectation of his friend from him changed dramatically as soon as he won. He is now thrown into the pit of the riches where nobody have sympathy for. I can only imagine the shock that he is experiencing and the adjustments he has to make to people’s expectation of him. After all these are basic human instincts. I’d do the same if someone I know won. And as someone who’ve gradually increased his own net worth over the years, I understand a bit of what he’s going through.
From poor to rich
As an example from my life. When I just graduated, nobody expects me to pay for anything. My relationships with people were more like co-conspirators on getting things for free. It was an adventure. Nowadays they call me cheap when I try to do that. Probably because I mistakenly revealed certain indications that I am well off. It can’t be helped because your habits start to change as you grow wealthier. For starters, pocket change is now $5 instead of $2 and coins of $2 is now pocket change that you don’t mind losing on the street. As these threshold increases, so does the interactions in your life.
Generosity
Generosity is another tag that you get when you are richer. You are not pinched for money so you can actually give without regretting. You can participate in more diverse spectrum of events instead of going for a boring stroll in the park all the time. Well, you can always do that, but my difference from others is that I only want to be able to do that when it doesn’t hurt my wallet.
